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  • larrycook08
    Jerusalem Post.com » International » Article Updated Aug 11, 2008 0:10 As we write, reports are coming in that after a bombardment by Russia s aircraft, its
    Nachricht 1 von 3 , 11. Aug. 2008
      Jerusalem Post.com » International » Article


      Updated Aug 11, 2008 0:10












      As we write, reports are coming in that after a bombardment by
      Russia's aircraft, its tanks are advancing on the Georgian town of
      Gori - the birthplace of Iosif Djugashvili, better known as Stalin.

      This throwback to the heyday of the Soviet Union is more than
      symbolic. Historical analogies are never perfect, but our sense of
      déjà vu was acute as we watched Moscow's Soviet-style move to
      reassert its domination of the USSR's former fief.

      Moscow perceives a threat to its strategic interests from a small
      regional actor. It prods its neighboring clients to commit such
      provocations that the adversary is drawn into military action
      that "legitimizes" a massive, direct intervention to "defend the
      victims of aggression."

      In our recent study Foxbats over Dimona: The Soviets' Nuclear Gamble
      in the Six-Day War, we demonstrated that this was the scenario
      employed by the USSR to instigate the 1967 conflict. Then, it was
      the unexpectedly devastating effect of Israel's preemptive strike
      that thwarted the planned Soviet intervention. Against Georgia this
      week, the ploy has so far worked much better.

      As in our Middle Eastern precedent, a major motive for Moscow's move
      was to prevent its encirclement by nuclear-armed Western pacts. When
      the United States announced its intent to deploy missile defenses in
      the new NATO members Poland and the Czech Republic, Russia declared
      this to be a measure that would be met with a military response. Its
      alarm grew when President George W. Bush visited Ukraine and
      Georgia, inviting them, too, into NATO. But at the pact's summit in
      Bucharest in April, when the European allies demurred, Russia saw
      its chance - and pounced.

      Georgia has assiduously courted US protection, if not a full NATO
      guarantee. It sent 2,000 soldiers to Iraq, who are being recalled to
      face the Russian invasion. Washington has provided Georgia with
      materiel and advisers, and so did Israel - at least until Russia
      pressed it to stop, reportedly in return for promises to withhold
      advanced weapons from Syria.

      The South Ossetia separatists are already claiming US intervention -
      saying there are black people among the Georgian casualties. But
      even if some American personnel went discreetly into action, that
      would not suffice to deter Russia from bringing Georgia to heel, if
      not physically occupying the country. And then the Western loss will
      not be limited to the independence of a small, remote, struggling
      democracy.

      Russia would achieve another strategic goal: regaining control of
      the vital flow of Caspian Sea oil to Western (and Israeli) consumers
      via pipelines that pass through Georgia to its own ports - now
      already blockaded by the Russian navy - and to Turkey's.

      But Moscow's apparent disregard for the hitherto internationally
      sacrosanct borders and sovereignty of the 15 former Soviet Socialist
      Republics may have even farther-reaching consequences. Russia itself
      enjoyed immunity for its suppression of Chechnya's independence bid,
      as the latter was only an autonomous component of the Russian
      Federation. By the same token, South Ossetia and Abkhazia (where
      Russian marines have landed to assist separatists in opening a
      second front) are integral parts of Georgia. In calling these often-
      arbitrary borders into question, Russia has opened a vast Pandora's
      box.

      Absent a resolute Western response, the next in line for Russian
      designs will be another would-be NATO candidate: Ukraine, which
      Moscow has already berated for backing Georgia. Ukraine's eastern
      mining and industrial regions are heavily populated by Russian-
      speakers; the Crimea, whence Ukraine seeks to eject the Russian
      Black Sea Fleet's main base, was part of Russia until the 1950s.

      After "coming to the rescue of Russian citizens" in South Ossetia
      (locals who were issued Russian passports, or actual settlers from
      across the border), Moscow may demand the repatriation of its people
      from Ukraine - along with their land.

      In respect to Israel, too, Russian leaders often proclaim a "special
      relationship" based on the "hundreds of thousands of Russian people"
      who reside here. This may still be far over the horizon - but you
      read it here first: Some day, a "representative delegation" of
      these "Russians" may invoke the Ossetian precedent to appeal for
      protection from Moscow. With a large part of the Russian fleet moved
      by then from Sevastopol, Crimea, to Tartus, Syria, such an
      intervention may be at least .
    • larrycook08
      Jerusalem Post.com » International » Article Updated Aug 11, 2008 0:10 As we write, reports are coming in that after a bombardment by Russia s aircraft, its
      Nachricht 2 von 3 , 11. Aug. 2008
        Jerusalem Post.com » International » Article


        Updated Aug 11, 2008 0:10



        As we write, reports are coming in that after a bombardment by
        Russia's aircraft, its tanks are advancing on the Georgian town of
        Gori - the birthplace of Iosif Djugashvili, better known as Stalin.

        This throwback to the heyday of the Soviet Union is more than
        symbolic. Historical analogies are never perfect, but our sense of
        déjà vu was acute as we watched Moscow's Soviet-style move to
        reassert its domination of the USSR's former fief.

        Moscow perceives a threat to its strategic interests from a small
        regional actor. It prods its neighboring clients to commit such
        provocations that the adversary is drawn into military action
        that "legitimizes" a massive, direct intervention to "defend the
        victims of aggression."

        In our recent study Foxbats over Dimona: The Soviets' Nuclear Gamble
        in the Six-Day War, we demonstrated that this was the scenario
        employed by the USSR to instigate the 1967 conflict. Then, it was
        the unexpectedly devastating effect of Israel's preemptive strike
        that thwarted the planned Soviet intervention. Against Georgia this
        week, the ploy has so far worked much better.

        As in our Middle Eastern precedent, a major motive for Moscow's move
        was to prevent its encirclement by nuclear-armed Western pacts. When
        the United States announced its intent to deploy missile defenses in
        the new NATO members Poland and the Czech Republic, Russia declared
        this to be a measure that would be met with a military response. Its
        alarm grew when President George W. Bush visited Ukraine and
        Georgia, inviting them, too, into NATO. But at the pact's summit in
        Bucharest in April, when the European allies demurred, Russia saw
        its chance - and pounced.

        Georgia has assiduously courted US protection, if not a full NATO
        guarantee. It sent 2,000 soldiers to Iraq, who are being recalled to
        face the Russian invasion. Washington has provided Georgia with
        materiel and advisers, and so did Israel - at least until Russia
        pressed it to stop, reportedly in return for promises to withhold
        advanced weapons from Syria.

        The South Ossetia separatists are already claiming US intervention -
        saying there are black people among the Georgian casualties. But
        even if some American personnel went discreetly into action, that
        would not suffice to deter Russia from bringing Georgia to heel, if
        not physically occupying the country. And then the Western loss will
        not be limited to the independence of a small, remote, struggling
        democracy.

        Russia would achieve another strategic goal: regaining control of
        the vital flow of Caspian Sea oil to Western (and Israeli) consumers
        via pipelines that pass through Georgia to its own ports - now
        already blockaded by the Russian navy - and to Turkey's.

        But Moscow's apparent disregard for the hitherto internationally
        sacrosanct borders and sovereignty of the 15 former Soviet Socialist
        Republics may have even farther-reaching consequences. Russia itself
        enjoyed immunity for its suppression of Chechnya's independence bid,
        as the latter was only an autonomous component of the Russian
        Federation. By the same token, South Ossetia and Abkhazia (where
        Russian marines have landed to assist separatists in opening a
        second front) are integral parts of Georgia. In calling these often-
        arbitrary borders into question, Russia has opened a vast Pandora's
        box.

        Absent a resolute Western response, the next in line for Russian
        designs will be another would-be NATO candidate: Ukraine, which
        Moscow has already berated for backing Georgia. Ukraine's eastern
        mining and industrial regions are heavily populated by Russian-
        speakers; the Crimea, whence Ukraine seeks to eject the Russian
        Black Sea Fleet's main base, was part of Russia until the 1950s.

        After "coming to the rescue of Russian citizens" in South Ossetia
        (locals who were issued Russian passports, or actual settlers from
        across the border), Moscow may demand the repatriation of its people
        from Ukraine - along with their land.

        In respect to Israel, too, Russian leaders often proclaim a "special
        relationship" based on the "hundreds of thousands of Russian people"
        who reside here. This may still be far over the horizon - but you
        read it here first: Some day, a "representative delegation" of
        these "Russians" may invoke the Ossetian precedent to appeal for
        protection from Moscow. With a large part of the Russian fleet moved
        by then from Sevastopol, Crimea, to Tartus, Syria, such an
        intervention may be at least as feasible as in 1967.
      • gzip111
        ... Ich glaube, daß es für das Problem Georgien und den abtrünigen Gebieten keine Lösung gibt. Was man auch macht, es wird immer willkürlich sein. Ein
        Nachricht 3 von 3 , 1. Jan. 08:12
          --- In Spionage@... hat "larrycook08" <larrycook08@...>
          geschrieben:
          >
          > Jerusalem Post.com » International » Article
          >
          > Updated Aug 11, 2008 0:10
          >
          > As we write, reports are coming in that after a bombardment by
          > Russia's aircraft, its tanks are advancing on the Georgian town of
          > Gori - the birthplace of Iosif Djugashvili, better known as Stalin.
          >

          Ich glaube, daß es für das Problem Georgien und den abtrünigen Gebieten
          keine Lösung gibt. Was man auch macht, es wird immer willkürlich sein.

          Ein NATO-Beitritt für Georgien und die Uraine sollte nicht erfolgen,
          denn beide Länder liegen in einem Weltteil, der für die Verteidigung der
          westlichen Welt nicht von Interesse ist.

          gzip111
        Deine Nachricht wurde erfolgreich abgeschickt und wird in Kürze an die Empfänger geliefert.